Check our work.

Read, compute, date, cite. Nothing else.

1. Read on the record’s schedule

   Daily for carrier insurance, weekly for benefit plans, monthly for loan disclosures. Each board states when its data was last checked.

2. Compute the event

   Days remaining on a suspension order, months to a renewal, the dollar gap on a maturing loan. The arithmetic is stated on the board so you can redo it.

3. Cite every row

   Not a footnote. A reference on the row itself, so any single claim can be checked against the public record before anyone is contacted.

4. Add nothing

   No bought lists, no scraped social profiles, no guessed email patterns, no “modeled” blend. If a fact is not in a filing or computed from one, it is not on a board.

If a row fails its filing check, the month is free.

Where 37.3% and 27.2% come from.

• The cohort. Every carrier whose liability coverage was cancelled effective June 1 through July 15, 2026: 1,247 carriers, 1,204 still active businesses at the notice. We then read each one’s authority and insurance history forward in the federal record, measured August 24, 2026.
• 37.3% bought replacement coverage. 25.1% had a new policy on file by the cancellation date; another 12.2% replaced after a gap, median 15 days. A floor, not a ceiling: clocks still running at measurement count as no purchase.
• 27.2% went dark. Suspended or revoked with no replacement on file at measurement. These are the ones fast outreach might reach in time.
• 5,747 applicants, same window. Of 11,722 authority applications filed in those six weeks, the ones still pending with no insurance filing visible. Each needs a filing on record before its authority activates.
• The arithmetic is a script over public filings, rerun as the record accretes. Ask and we will walk you through it.

What the data cannot do.

• It cannot predict who will switch. Most groups renew with their incumbent. We can tell you every group’s renewal date and incumbent economics; nobody can tell you which will move.
• Filings lag reality. A 5500 describes the most recent completed plan year; a carrier’s replacement policy can bind before its filing posts. The date on the row is the filing’s date, never a pretense. The reason aged filings still sell renewals: renewal dates and incumbent relationships persist year over year, so last year’s Schedule A still tells you when the group shops.
• The regime changed in May 2026. Since FMCSA’s system cutover, a lapsed filing draws a served involuntary suspension order with a thirty day fuse, where the older regime revoked outright. Our rows cite the exact order they read; most of the industry’s own guides still describe the old regime. Note for anyone checking our work: the old Licensing & Insurance system has been historical-only since May 14, 2026 and does not show Motus filings, so verify against the Motus data rather than L&I.
• The renewal board covers 100+ life groups, because that is what the law requires to be filed. We say so everywhere the board is sold.